Thursday, July 7, 2011

Passing on Ingram and Most Overrated position in Football

 Ever since the NFL Draft I have heard on the radio, internet, and everywhere else how the Pats messed up to pass on Ingram.  Having a great running back at this point should be almost last on every teams list of needs.  Before you get carried away, I am not saying a running game does not matter, but rather having ONE great running back is vastly overrated.  Ever since major rule changes started happening in early 00's, like Brady rule after his knee injury and Manning's rule after Pats DBs roughed up Colts WRs in a Pats playoff win, football has steadily tilted more and more towards a heavy passing and a high scoring game.  This is being even taken further with concussion rules and how the defense can and can not hit a 'defenseless' receiver.  The end result is higher scoring games where teams need to be able to pass the ball and put points on the board to really compete. 

To add on to this, which already devalued a RB greatly, there are less and less teams who haven't caught on to the back by committee approach.  By my count, there are only 10 teams left who go with a single back, ATL, STL, HOU, PIT, CIN, TEN, MIN, CLE, CHI, SF.  Only 3 of them made the playoffs last year.  It is easier on the team financially, and easier in general, to find a backs who can fit one specific need (Power, 3rd down, etc.) and have a them form a two or three headed monster in your backfield instead of overpaying or using high draft pick on top RBs.  Although there is no RB who will admit it, the committee approach is probably better for their career as well.  They might not get as much credit, money, or playing time as they want, but this approach will lengthen their careers, and maybe even their life.  This is taken from a ESPN article where it was looking at what Chris Johnson from Tennessee, one of the ten teams using single back approach, new contract would be worth on the open market. 
Last year, no NFL quarterback took more hits than Jay Cutler, who was hit 92 times, according to the league. So consider this: Chris Johnson ran 316 times and caught 44 passes. He was hit presumably four times as much as Cutler, and that's before he threw a block.


This is why the average NFL running back doesn't last three full seasons, the shortest average career of any position group. These are the basic facts from the NFL Players Association, with 2.57 years cited in a recent study.
While 2.57 years is extremely short, it should not be too surprising.  How many elite RB have we seen rise and fall since '00? Also, how many elite RB since '00 have have actually won a ring?  While it may not be fair to put that entirely on their shoulder, it is interesting to look at.  Here is my own list of the top RB since 2000.  All players listed had multiple seasons going over 1200 yards rushing.

Adrian Peterson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Maurice Jones Drew, Chris Johnson, Curtis Martin, Ahmen Green, Tiki Barber, Thomas Jones, Ricky Williams, Clinton Portis, Preist Holmes, Jamal Lewis, Shaun Alexander, Edgerrin James, Steven Jackson, Corey Dillon, Jamaal Charles, Marshall Faukl

Of the 18 top backs only 3 have rings.  Corey Dillon with the Pats, Jamal Lewis on the Ravens, and Marshall Faulk with the Rams.  Almost every back on that list has been on a losing team at some point in their prime.  So is it really worth using such a high pick or huge contracts on a player who, odds are, will have a short career and even if they do pan out to the best RB in the world, won't automatically make you a contender?  By comparison, every elite QB since '00 (Brady, Manning, Rivers, Rodgers, Brees, Favre, Big Ben, Warner) now has a ring, except for Phillip Rivers, and they all almost always were on a winning teams.

So for all the people who are mad the Pats passed on Ingram and let him slip to 28th, don't be.  Be mad Pats didn't get anybody for their pass rush and be happy Pats aren't overpaying or reaching for a RB, and would rather improve O-line and plug in right players to fill the needed roles in the backfield.

QB > Defense > O-line > WR/RB

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