As a Patriots fan, I both wanted and feared the Giants. The Patriots need to beat them to make this year official and to avenge their ruined perfect season. The 49ers would of been a much easier opponent, as their offense is essentially Vernon Davis and Frank Gore. Alex Smith is more athletic than given credit for, but is still a one read QB. The Patriots should not of had too hard a time containing that offense and putting some points on the board.
The Giants offense features a revitalized running game (not too hard to revitalize when you're 32nd in the league) and one of the better 1-2 punch at WR in football. Eli Manning is playing great, and the pass rush might be the best in the NFL right now. Those two things, WRs and pass rush, are the two biggest problems for the Patriots in the recent history. If you can get to Brady with rushing 4 or less, and are therefore able to drop 7 back in coverage, it is huge. The Patriots DBs, although they have been playing better recently, are still a huge liability, and Nicks and Cruz should be able to abuse them. Working against the Giants is they do not have a great O-line, they have poor LBs, and their DBs are overrated due to pressure created by the pass rush. For much of the year, the Giants' pass defense wasn't all that much better than the Patriots.
Patriots have arguably the best QB in the game right now, the best two TE combo, and their offense is extremely hard to match up with. When you see two TEs in the offensive huddle you can not assume anything. Against most teams, a defense can look at who is on the field, and then send out the appropriate package to defend it. But if you play small and send your nickel defense vs. 2 TE sets against the Pats, then they will run it up the gut. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is not the most talented RB in the league, or even on his own team, but he gets what is blocked, doesn't dance, falls forward, and never fumbles... literally.. he never fumbles. When the defense sends out the run stopping unit vs. the 2 TE sets the Pats can easily spread the field and force opposing defense's run stopping LBs to match up with Gronkowksi and Hernandez, which is not good. Either way, you have to pick your poison. And this is all without even mentioning the WR with the 2nd most receiving yards in the NFL, Wes Welker. The Patriots need to be balanced on offense, not outsmart themselves with trick plays (running sweeps with Hernandez on 3rd and short in the redzone), and keep Brady standing. The best defense against the Pats has been trying to confuse Brady with zones while rushing 4, and hoping your pass rush can get to him. It worked for the Cowboys, Steelers, and Giants so far this year.
On the Patriots defensive side, their D-line has been a whole different unit the 2nd half of the year compared to the 1st (one has to wonder if Haynesworth's leaving helped). They have been getting pressure from Mark Anderson from the the DE position, and Wilfork has been doing a great job of pushing the line. The front 7 has also been playing well vs. the run this year whenever Spikes has been there. NFL Films analyst Greg Cosell calls Brandon Spikes, "arguably the most physical and violent inside linebacker in the NFL." Kyle Love is one of the more underrated players there is, and combined with Wilfork is one of the harder DTs to move. The Patriots need to get pressure on Manning, make him feel uncomfortable, and limit the big plays as much as possible. They also really need to get him off the field on 3rd downs. Also, Manning has been prone to throwing interceptions throughout his career, and the Patriots defensive backs have been pretty good ballhawks this season, so turnovers could be huge.
The Patriots and Giants played earlier this year, it came down to the last possession, when the Giants marched down the field to score with 15 seconds left to go up 24-20. All points were scored in the 2nd half. The Giants won the turnover battle as Brady threw 2 interceptions, lost a fumble, and had to watch as Edelman lost a fumble on a punt return. This was a game in which Nicks and Ahmad Bradshaw did not play due to injury, Haynesworth (cut 3 days after the game) was still on the Pats, both Spikes and Chung left before the finish due to injury, and Andre Carter was not injured yet.
I think Brady and Belicheck will not allow this team to lose again to the Giants in the Super Browl. Brady will rebound from his worst rated playoff game ever and play well, while limiting mistakes, the Patriots D will come up with some big plays on the D-line and from the linebacking core, BGE will run for 75+ yards, and Eli Manning will make a few costly mistakes. Patriots 31 Giants 21
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