Three games in and it's Miami 2, Dallas 1. Outside of Dallas' torrid stretch at the end of the fourth quarter in Game 2, Miami's defense has been the story. Some thoughts going forward:
- John Hollinger has a an interesting article regarding some moves that he believes the Mavs need to make. First, he recommends starting Jason Terry. I really don't care either way about this one--who starts doesn't matter all that much, as long as Terry gets his minutes. Second, however, he makes a very timely statement regarding the need to "shake up Dirk's minutes." Hollinger points out: "Dallas has played only 20 minutes without Dirk in the series, but in that time the Mavs are a staggering minus-31. At that rate, Dallas would lose a 48-minute game by 74 points. Basically, the Mavs are outplaying the Heat as long as Nowitzki plays, but they're getting killed in his few minutes of rest." The primary culprit for these terrible numbers? Peja Stojakovic. He's not hitting shots and getting absolutely toasted when he attempts to play something resembling defense. Like Hollinger, I believe Carlisle needs to show Peja the bench and give his minutes to Corey Brewer. In fact, Brewer should be getting run in the late minutes as well if Dallas is able to substitute offense/defense, as he's much better equipped than Jason Kidd to cover Dwayne Wade.
- I do like Carlisle's strategy of giving DeShawn Stevenson a quick hook at the beginning of the first and third quarters and replacing him with J. J. Barea. Doing so allows Barea to get his minutes against Mike Bibby.
- Speaking of which, Mike Bibby should probably start getting about 10 minutes a game. Much like Peja, he really isn't bringing anything to the table.
- The LeBron negativity emanating from the Skip Bayless wing of the journalism world is, put plainly, stupid. First of all, it ignores the first three rounds of the playoffs, in which LeBron's clutch shooting reached historic levels. Second, it ignores matchups. Jason Kidd cannot cover Dwyane Wade. He gives Wade about five feet of room all the way to the free throw line, allowing for easy and uncontested jumpers. And Wade dominates him on the block. Also, Tyson Chandler doesn't care to cover Chris Bosh; he would much rather stay around the rim. Therefore, Bosh can get an open jumper nearly whenever he wants. Third, it ignores LeBron's passing--he's had great assist numbers during Finals' fourth quarters. And fourth, it ignores defense. LeBron has continued to show that he is arguably the best perimeter defender in the NBA (it's between him, Andre Iguodala, and Tony Allen) by shutting down Jason Terry to such an extent that Dirk is calling JET out for his lack of clutch scoring. Apparently, when it comes to the media, little has changed in the last three months.
- The Mavs have shored up their defensive rebounding quite a bit since the first game, with Dirk in particular greatly improving his box outs.
- Udonis Haslem's jumper has been an effective weapon throughout his career. But man, is it ugly.
- Assuming Brendan Haywood is out, Chandler's play in light of an increased workload bears watching. Ian Mahinmi reminds me of Shelden Williams in last years' Finals--clearly not ready. If Chandler begins to struggle due to playing nearly 40 minutes a night, or if he gets in foul trouble and forces Mahinmi onto the floor, the Mavs will be in trouble.
- The Mavs have a tough road ahead, but the series is not over. Dallas needs to win the next two and then hope to steal one in Miami. Difficult, but quite possible.
- On a non-Finals note, there has been talk of a Monta Ellis for Andre Iguodola swap. If this deal happens, it would be a great day for Golden State, and a slide away from the playoffs for the 76ers.
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