Bold Predictions Pt. I

Last night's NCAA tournament games were a star-studded affair, featuring three of the expected top ten picks in next years' NBA draft as well as a host of other prospects. After watching the games, I have some predictions to make regarding some of the players' NBA futures:

Jimmer Fredette

Jimmer Fredette (BYU): Someone will reach on Fredette and pick him in the middle of the first round or perhaps even late in the lottery. However, he will never flourish in the league and will bounce from team to team as a shooter off the bench. Due to all the attention that he got last night, his BYU teammates were often wide open, but I was not impressed with his passing and floor vision. Also, when pressed by Florida's athletic perimeter defenders, his handle seemed to at times come undone. Combine those two elements and he's not an NBA point. He will also struggle to create his own offensive in the league and his defensive liabilities are quite plain to see.

Derrick Williams

Derrick Williams (AZ): Williams impressed me. The guy can elevate, can shoot the three (shot 25% from deep as a freshman and then 60.3% (!) as a sophomore), and hits the boards. He almost averaged an insane 2 points per shot attempt this year. Guys who shine during the tournament often see their draft statuses rise (see Utah's ridiculous selection of Gordon Hayward last year) and I expect Williams to be drafted in the top 5. In the NBA, Williams will be a good, but not great, player. With his varied offensive game, he'll thrive if he goes to a team where he can play off of teammates that require a defense's attention. His sharp rise in outside shooting this season indicates to me that he works hard on his game, which bodes well for his continued improvement. Williams will have a difficult time on defense, where he's a bit of a tweener. He doesn't have the lateral quickness to hang with NBA 3s on the perimeter or the size (he's 6'8) to defend many 4s. During his career he will make one or two All-Star appearances and will always be considered a solid contributor.

Kyrie Irving

Kyrie Irving (Duke): He'll be selected #1 in the draft. Irving showed uncommon maturity as a freshman, going to the defending national champions and immediately asserting himself as a leader. He's already a polished shooter (over 50% from the floor, over 90% from the line, 46.2% from three). His assist numbers were quite good early in the season, but tumbled in the tournament after he came back from injury. Irving takes care of the ball and had a solid Ast:TO ratio. From what I have seen and heard, Irving is a very solid defender. The fact that he played in the tourney at all is impressive; he was already pegged to be the top pick and didn't have anything to gain on a personal level. Irving's only negative is that he doesn't have the athleticism of some other recent NBA point guard prospects such as Derrick Rose and John Wall, which may somewhat limit his upside. However, I would venture that he is more NBA ready than either of those players were going into their drafts. The guess here is that Irving is an All-Star within his first four years and is a top-30 NBA player for most of his career. However, he will never reach MVP/superstar level.

Kemba Walker

Kemba Walker (UConn): Talk about a guy carrying a team on his back. I'm usually not one for "intangibles," but it's difficult to not be impressed by the way Walker has led this unheralded, young group to the Big East Championship and the Elite 8. His shooting percentages aren't great, but much of that can be attributed to the fact that he has been asked to be UConn's sole creator all season against one Big East team after another. Also, he's still managed to be efficient enough to have a top-10 PER this season. His game has really improved over the years. His jumper has come a long way and he can still get to the hole nearly at will. He's also a solid passer and floor general. Many teams will be scared off by his small size and concern over whether he'll be able to defend the 6-3 points of today's NBA. As with Chris Paul, I think these fears, while real, are overblown. Walker appears to have the lower body strength to keep opposing guards out of the paint. His height will be a liability when closing out on shooters on the perimeter, but his strengths make up for that limitation. He'll be picked in the 8-10 range because of concerns about his size, but will make a few of the teams that pass him over regret their decision.