Tuesday, March 1, 2011

The Buyoutees--Mike Bibby and Troy Murphy

Mike Bibby and Troy Murphy will both soon have new homes. Word is that the Celtics and Heat are pursuing both players, with Bibby having already chosen Miami and with Murphy still weighing his options, but leaning towards Boston. The question is, how much will with either player help during the stretch run and the playoffs?

Mike Bibby is a very old 32. He plays like he's 38. He is unable to stay in front of his man on defense. Since he's left Atlanta, the Hawks defense has improved, with Josh Smith and Al Horford making clear that they don't miss having to cover up for Bibby's deficiencies. Also, Bibby has never been a great passer for a point, having averaged over 7 assists just once in his career. Moreover, he no longer is able to get to the hole. So, what can he do? Shoot open three pointers. This year he's shooting 44% from long range, a career high. Is that percentage sustainable? Perhaps not, but his career rate of 38% isn't too shabby either.

The guess here is that Bibby goes to Miami, since he'll be promised a much bigger role there. But I really don't know how much of an improvement he'll be over Mario Chalmers and Carlos Arroyo. He can shoot a bit better than the Heat's not particularly impressive duo, but Chalmers in particular is a better defender than Bibby. And the Heat don't have a presence in the paint that can force misses at the rim when an opposing player blows by Bibby on the perimeter. Instead, Dwayne Wade will probably continue his overhelping, leaving his man alone at the three point line. So, yes, Bibby will probably go to Miami, and in the process may bump Arroyo out of the rotation, but I don't think it makes much of a difference. And I don't see Bibby cracking the Heat's crunch-time rotation.

Troy Murphy can do two things well--shoot and rebound. Like Bibby, he is a sieve on the defensive end. On Miami, Murphy is another of a string of big bodies with deficiencies that Spoelstra can experiment with in an effort to settle on a rotation. If Murphy goes to Boston, he would be a laughable replacement for Kendrick Perkins' post defense. However, the Celtics real problem may be on the boards. Glenn Davis is not a good rebounder. In many of the games when he plays 30-35 mins, the Celtics get pounded on the boards. I'm glad the Celtics are shifting Jeff Green from the 4 to the 3, because he is also not a strong rebounder. Who knows when Shaq will really be healthy and whether, when he is able to get on the floor, he can play more than 20 minutes a game. If the Celtics can hide Murphy on a poor offensive player, he should be able to crash the boards while minimizing the harm from his bad defense. And his shooting will help space the floor. But like Bibby, I don't think Murphy sees the floor during the last five minutes of the fourth quarter, unless Rivers is making offense/defense substitutions. The Celtics can't risk the possibility of open looks after Murphy is MIA on a rotation.

So the final verdict? Murphy and Bibby will be much hyped signees, but neither will make a difference in the playoffs.

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