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This is why we can not depend 100% on stats. To look at unadjusted defensive rating you have to understand the Bulls. Derrick Rose is 12th in the league in minutes played and anytime he steps off the court it is Bulls' 2nd unit vs. another team's 2nd unit. Bulls have a great defensive 2nd unit with Brewer, Gibson, Kurt Thomas, CJ Watson, and Deng (4th in league in mpg) usually sticking around. This unit can understandingly usually man handle any other team's second unit defensively. Boozer, Noah, and Bogans all are on the wrong side of 0 in this stat as well. Deng is the only one on the negative side (the lower the number the better) from the group of five starters, and he regularly gets burn with the 2nd unit because of lack of depth at wing. Every single person on the 2nd unit is on the negative side except Kyle Korver, one of the worst defenders in the league. And even Korver manages to have better +/- then all of the other starters besides Deng.
Rose is also 5th best in unadjusted offensive +/- rating in the entire NBA. He is still the only play maker on the Bulls, now number one in Eastern Conference, and creates almost all of their offense. When Rose has scored 18 points or less this season Bulls are 8-5, when he has gone over that mark they are 40-13. You can also take a look at the Bulls adjusted +/- rating to get an idea of how much he matters, Rose's rating is + 9.08. Besides him only Asik (plays 12 minutes a game) has a rating better then 1. Without Rose the Bulls might be slightly better defensively but could not come close to keeping up with anybody offensively. Rose is still MVP of the league.
side note: If there is anybody else who should have a chance, it should be Dwight Howard and not Lebron James
1 comments:
You make some good points about how the makeup of the Bulls' team affects the defensive +/- ratings of their starters. However, while that
may pull Rose's rating down a bit, it doesn't explain why he has the worst rating of that first unit. Also, you can't rely on Deng's large minute load to explain why he has a good defensive +/- rating while at the same time pointing to Rose's heavy minutes per game as reason for a poor rating.
The argument here is pretty simple. LeBron James (and Dwight Howard, whom I see as a very valid MVP candidate) are very good to exceptional on offense. According to pretty much any numerical measure, from offensive +/- rating to PER, they are in fact equal to or superior to Rose on the offensive end of the floor. However, James and Rose are also very good to exceptional defensive players. Rose is a mediocre to poor defender. There may be a day not far off when Rose is a deserving MVP. But that day will not arrive until he either becomes a complete player or becomes otherworldly on offense.
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