Upset Special

Not long ago, when a team from a mid-major conference won a game in the NCAA tournament it it was a monumental upset. Remember when Valpo beat Mississippi in 1998? CBS loves playing replays of Bryce Drew's game winning shot to this day. That opening-round game arguably has an even larger legacy than the championship game that year, won by a Tubby Smith-led Kentucky team.

Fast-forward to the present. Hardly anyone beats an eyelash when VCU beats down Georgetown and Purdue in consecutive games. And Morehead State's victory over Louisville was fun, but I guarantee that Delmonte Harper's three-pointer won't have the replay value of Drew's shot.

So, what's changed?

The primary difference maker is the fact that big-time schools find it nearly impossible to hang on to stars for more than a year or two. Check out this recent post on Celtics Hub discussing what some top teams would look like if players had not fled for the lottery. According to the poster, Tyreke Evans, last year's NBA rookie of the year, would have only been a Third Team All American this year. For better or worse, top players primarily view college as a way to maximize their draft position. Once they are assured of being a first-round pick (and sometimes before that's the case), they're gone. Many top-seeds, such as Kentucky last year and Ohio State this year, are led by freshmen that everyone knows are one-and-done. Meanwhile, mid-majors have senior-laden squads of full grown men that know how to play together.

A secondary cause is that success for mid-major teams begets success. As mid-majors began to win more games in the tournament, they got more TV time. Players began to get more name recognition. Stars saw their draft prospects improve. Going to a mid-major no longer meant that your dream of being featured on ESPN or of playing in the NBA was over. As a result, coaches like Mark Few have been able to recruit players that a mid-major wouldn't even have dreamed of not long ago.

Perception has been a bit slow to catch up with reality. When the playing field began to level out, people were still shocked by each years' "upsets." But over time, Gonzaga's tournament runs became less and less surprising. And after George Mason broke into the Final Four, it was clear that mid-majors could hang with anyone. Butler nearly made the ultimate breakthrough last year. While Gordon Heyward's half-court shot rimmed out, it is only a matter of time before a team from a mid-major conference wins the whole shindig--perhaps even this year with two teams, San Diego State and BYU, ranked in the top-10 for much of the season (again, that never ever could have happened ten years ago) still being alive.

Unless David Stern is somehow able to do the impossible and force players to stay in school for more years, parity in college basketball is here to stay. Is that a good thing? I'll leave that discussion for another day.