Bold Predictions Pt. II

I've been continuing to watch the NCAA tournament and have a few more predictions regarding the NBA careers of prospective draft picks.

Harrison Barnes

Harrison Barnes (UNC): Most mock drafts seemed to have Barnes pegged for the top 5 and perhaps even the top 3. A few even have him going #1. I don't disagree with these projections. People have been in love with Barnes' potential since high school. This year, he was the first freshman to ever be a pre-season All-American. Somehow, despite underperforming for much of the season, Barnes has shown enough to retain many scouts' love.

My estimation of Barnes' NBA career however: Harrison Barnes will be the bust of the 2011 NBA Draft. Barnes disappears for long periods of time on offense and doesn't demand the ball during big moments. He isn't athletic enough to get to the rim and therefore settles for a lot of jumpers--jumpers that he doesn't hit with all that much consistency. He doesn't create shots for others and isn't anything special on the boards. The numbers bear me out. Barnes shot under 43% from the field, didn't get to the line with great frequency, and averaged more turnovers per game than assists. And all this despite having talented teammates around him who necessitated that the opposing team not simply focus on shutting down Barnes. I do give Barnes props for being a solid defender for a freshmen. However, someone drafting him near the top of the board is looking for more. And I don't think they will get it.

Kenneth Faried

Kenneth Faried (Morehouse State): Faried is almost the anti-Harrison Barnes. Whereas Barnes was a pre-season All-American as a freshmen, no one knew who Faried was when he entered Morehouse State. And whereas Barnes will disappear for long stretches, Faried's energy means that you never forget when he's on the floor.

Mocks are all over the board on Faried. Some have him sneaking into the lottery, others have him towards the end of the first round. I predict that the he falls somewhere in the 20-25 range. NBA teams still love scorers and Faried is never going to be a guy that you're going to lean on for points. They also love untapped potential and Faried, having stayed in school for four years, doesn't have the same room for growth as the one-and-doners.

If Faried does drop that low, teams that drafted in the teens will be looking away in embarrassment over the next decade while he asserts himself as a valuable contributor. Faried led the NCAA in PER this year. He crashes the boards and averaged 14.5 (including 5.7 from the offensive glass) rebounds per game. He gets energy points around the basket and averaged over 17 points per game, despite not currently having a jumper or a post game. He anchored Morehouse's defense and averaged 2.3 blocks and 1.9 rebounds per game. And these numbers are not simply a result of playing against sub-par competition; he went for 20 and 18 against Florida, 15 and 12 against Ohio State, and 17 and 17 against Louisville in the first round of the tournament. I watched the game against Louisville and saw a player who simply will not be denied due to his combination of motor, smarts and athleticism. At worst, Faried will give an NBA team 20-25 minutes of non-stop energy off the bench; someone who will torment the opposing teams' second line. Best case scenario: he develops a mid-range jumper and is a starting player on a championship caliber team, playing defense, hitting the boards, and being good enough on offense to keep defenses honest.