Considering the numbers above, you would expect the Bulls to be in the conversation when discussing title favorites. But instead you hear the talking heads bringing up the Lakers, Celtics, and Spurs. Sometimes they name the Heat. The Bulls are mentioned, but quickly discarded because of their lack of "playoff experience."
Most people seem to accept that such experience makes a difference. But I have yet to see anyone put forward evidence supporting the theory. So I decided to conduct a simple, not particularly scientific, study. I looked back at teams from the past twenty seasons that (a) have posted one of the two best records in the league, (b) had a top 5-defensive rating, and (c) had not reached the conference finals during the previous five years. I then took a look at how these teams did in the playoffs.
So, who were these teams? The list is relatively short:
2007-08 Boston Celtics. Led by Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen, the Celtics finished the regular season 66-16 and were first in the league in defensive rating. They had some unexpected struggles in the early rounds of the playoffs, but went on to win the Championship against the Los Angeles Lakers.
2000-01 Philadelphia 76ers. No one on the 76ers other than Allen Iverson averaged more than 12.4 points per game, but with a stingy defense and helped by playing in a horrid Eastern Conference, they went 54-28. They made it to the Finals and gave the heavily favored Lakers a scare when they won Game One...but proceeded to lose the next four.
1994-95 San Antonio Spurs. With David Robinson leading the way, the Spurs posted a 57-25 record. They made it to the Western Conference Finals before succumbing to the eventual Champion Houston Rockets by a a count of 4 games to 2.
1993-94 Houston Rockets. Speaking of the Rockets, Hakeem Olajuwan teamed up with a bevy of solid, though not exceptional players (Vernon Maxwell, Kenny Smith, Otis Thorpe, Robert Horry, Mario Elie, Sam Cassell) and accomplished a 53-29 regular season record and finished with the league's second best defensive rating. The team went on to win the NBA Championship 4 games to 3 against the Knicks in a low scoring, defensive struggle.
1992-93 New York Knicks. Ah yes, the Knicks of Ewing, Starks, Oakley and Mason. They went 58-24, had the best defensive in the league, and an offense that came in all the way down at 22nd. As with every other Eastern Conference team of the day, they couldn't make it past the Chicago Bulls, falling in a six games series in the Eastern Conference finals.
Five teams, two won the Championship, one lost in the Finals, and two lost in the Conference Finals. None of the teams flamed out. Two of the three teams that didn't win it all lost because they were simply outclassed (the 76ers against the Shaq/Kobe Lakers and the Knicks against the Jordan Bulls). Only the Spurs lost a series that they even arguably should have won.
So what does it add up to? Pretty darn good results. Count the Bulls out at your own risk.
1 comments:
While I agree playoff experience is overrated their should be an note next to the 08 Celtics. It was all more then five years ago, but still Boston's big three had all previously been to a conference finals and did not lack experience. Pierce on Boston lost to the NJ in ECF in 02, Ray Allen with the Milwaukee lost to 76ers in ECF in 01, and KG on Minnesota lost to LA Lakers in WCF in 04.
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