Thunder has absolutely no answer to Nowitzki (not that any team really does). Ibaka is a blocking and fouling machine who will not be able to resist the pump fakes. I wish I could bet the over on his fouls per a game as he will stay in foul trouble throughout the series unless they switch who he is defending. The time Ibaka is on the court he also won't be playing the way he likes, in or around the paint. This means he won't be a factor on the defensive boards because he will be around the perimeter and top of the key chasing Nowitzki. Collison might actually be their best option, but he is a good post defender and not really made to be playing too far outside the paint.
If Scott Brooks continues to play Perkins for 30 plus minutes and with the starters Chandler should also have a field day. Perkins is already playing like a shell of his former self, and even before was much better suited to be playing against the D Howards and Bynums of the league. Matching him up against someone who can hit a jumper (Chandler has steadily improved) has never worked well. If you need evidence just check some of Marc Gasol's stats from last series. If Scott Brooks wants to really win this series the best strategy would be to sit Perkins and only bring him in when Haywood is in and switch Ibaka back to the 5 to cover Chandler.
The most interesting part of this series though is what will Dallas do with Durant. A steady dose of Marion and Corey Brewer seems like the easy answer. Brewer is a defensive menace who can play physical and tight to his opponent much like Tony Allen. While Tony Allen is still a better defender, Brewer is 5 inches taller and will not allow Durant to shoot over him as easy. Marion will also be able to provide some of the physical tight defense that Durant does not like to play against. No matter what Durant will get his 25+ per a game, but the question is how efficiently do you let him do that. Unless refs are calling the games tight and not letting Marion or Brewer play D like they want, I think Durant will be in for some long nights.
The one place OKC seems to have the advantage is in Westbrook. Jason Kidd does not have the speed to keep up with him and Stevenson would not do a much better job on him as well. If Kidd does stick with Westbrook I would imagine he would give him a lot of room to dare him to shoot and just try to stay in front of him. Even with all that room Westbrook's speed would be just too much for Kidd to handle. I think their secret weapon might be on their bench. JJ Barea seems like the exact type of player that can give Westbrook fits. He is great at taking the charge, something Westbrook is susceptible to doing as he often just puts his head down and goes. Barea is also strong enough to not get muscled around by Westbrook and his height, or lack of height, is not something that will get taken advantage of as Westbrook is not a great shooter. Dallas would love if he settled for jumpers throughout the series.
For OKC to have a chance they need to tweak their rotations and keep this fast paced and allow Westbrook to get quick outlet passes and immediately start the break. They can't get slowed down into halfcourt offense and allow Dallas to get their defense set. I don't think that is going to happen enough. Dallas in 5.
*edit* Mavs have said they will start Stevenson guarding Westbrook after 'stopping' Kobe in the round before. Kobe was injured and took the ball to the hole less then 10 times that whole series. At this point Stevenson as a 'defensive stopper' is very overrated.
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