I do want to first make brief mention of the conference finals that we just witnessed. I can't remember two five game series that were more competitive. Seemingly every game came down to the very end, and could have gone either way. While the series were both short, they were still quite entertaining.
Now, however, we move on to the main event. The Heat were expected to be here this year. They never quite reached the (insane) heights predicted by Jeff Van Gundy in the pre-season, but after a regular season filled with ups and downs they appear to be gelling at the right time. The Mavs, on the other hand, were thought to be an old team past its prime. However, looking at the stats, both contestants are quite worthy. They were two of only three teams that finished in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. And the Mavs final record (and point differential) are somewhat misleading; when Dirk was out for a stretch of games mid-season, they went 2-7. When their best player is on the floor, they are a wholly different team.
The Heat are facing a team whose offense is drastically different from the one they just shut down. Yes, both the Bulls and Mavericks rely on a single superstar. But Miami's strategy against Chicago, which consisted of doubling or strongly hedging on Derrick Rose pick-and-rolls, forming a wall whenever Rose tried to drive, and forcing Bulls role players to shoot jumpers, won't cut it against the Mavs. The Bulls run simple offense sets, don't have a bevy of good shooters, and rely on Rose getting to the rim and on their bigs crashing the offensive glass. The Mavs run complex, and well executed, sets and have hardly anyone that can take their man off the dribble. Their offense centers around Dirk, and pushing the opponent into making difficult choices. If Dirk gets the ball one-on-one, do you double and allow the Mavs' shooters to take open jumpers? Or do you let him go to work and take his almost indefensible fall away? Similarly, if he's involved in a pick-and-roll, does his man stick to him like glue, allowing the man with the ball an easy path to the hoop? Or do you hedge, thereby giving Dirk the small bit of space he needs to get off a jumper? These are not easy decisions.
The Heat, however, are well built to defend the Mavs. They have a host of players who can cover Dirk: Chris Bosh, Udonis Haslem, Joel Anthony, and even LeBron James. None of these players can or will shut Dirk down. However, they should be able to make him work for his points. I expect the Heat to attempt to avoid predictability, and thereby change up defenders and whether or not to double team. Doubling against Dirk is extremely dangerous. He's a very good decision maker and will not force a shot that isn't there. (Did you see the Mavs completely light up the Lakers in the final game of their sweep?) But the Heat are extremely good at rotating out to the perimeter, and the long arms of their wings mean that they can bother a shot without being right in a man's face. The Mavs offense has unbelievable in the playoffs and Dallas will score their points. But they haven't faced a defense as good as Miami's. Gone are the days of hyper-efficiency and scoring in the 110s and 120s.
How about on the other end of the floor? The first issue when it comes to defending the Heat is figuring out what to do about LeBron and Wade. I expect Shawn Marion will be the primary defender on LeBron. He isn't quite the defender of Luol Deng, who forced LeBron into taking very difficult shots for much of the Chicago series. Also, the Mavs help defense, and ability to block off the paint, is nowhere close to as good as the Bulls. Tyson Chandler will be very important in this respect, and he absolutely needs to stay out of foul trouble. Dwayne Wade will probably be covered initially by Deshawn Stevenson. Once Stevenson finds his way to the bench, Jason Kidd will likely get the assignment. Kidd will cover Wade much like he covered Kobe Bryant; he'll allow him space, and try to goad him into shooting long two pointers. Wade, however, is much better than Kobe right now at getting to the rim. He struggled mightily against Chicago. His jumper wasn't falling (to be honest, it often isn't) and he wasn't able to get to the rim. He resorted to trying to draw fouls and shooting tough mid-range shots. Wade should find the Mavs defense preferable, though if Chandler can stay in the game, he'll be a real obstacle. Nowitzki will probably likely cover Bosh. The Mavs want Chandler (and Brendan Haywood) to stay near the rim. It's a matchup that Bosh should be looking forward to. And if he can get Dirk into foul trouble, it would be huge. Because the Mavs don't matchup all that well on an individual basis against the Heat (few do), they may double frequently and try to force the Heat role players, who are quite inferior to the likes of Jason Terry and Peja Stojakovic, to shoot jumpers.
The Mavs hidden weapon in this series could be their zone defense. They play zone more often, and with better results, than any other team in the NBA. They also utilize hybrid defenses that are difficult to categorize, mixing man and zone coverage. Using zone against Miami will allow Dallas to hide their inability to cover the Heat stars one-on-one, and may force the Heat into becoming a jump shooting team. LeBron James has hit some huge three point shots this post-season, but any opponent would still far prefer that he keeps taking those long range bombs than have him get into the lane. If the Mavs do go this route, Chris Bosh becomes extremely important. He'll be counted on to catch the ball around the foul line and either hit jumpers or facilitate the offense. The Heat will also need Wade and LeBron to resist the instinct to fall in love with their jump shots. Instead, they need to be patient, drive, move off the ball, and only shoot jumpers when are truly open looks.
Substitution patterns will be yet another chess match within this series. James Jones didn't see the floor at all against the Bulls, but should see some time here as his lack of rebounding isn't as much of an issue, and he could be lethal against a Dallas zone. Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem will continue to see increased minuted as well. Haslem will be asked to hit open jumpers and if Miller can hit his three pointers, despite his unusable thumbs, it would be a big lift.
Will the Mavs be able to get away with having J.J. Barea, Jason Terry and Peja on the floor at the same time? The spacing they provide is great, but will it make up for their defense and lack of size and bulk? Will Corey Brewer get some run so he can cover LeBron or Wade?
Finally, while the Heat will almost assuredly go without a point guard at times and use a lineup consisting of the Big Three plus Miller and Haslem, will they spend any time with a small lineup that has LeBron at the 4? The spacing from such a lineup, as well as having LeBron be the one that catches the ball at the foul line as the point-forward, would make it nearly impossible for Dallas to play zone.
I expect a great series. In the end, however, the Heat are a slightly better team and also have a slightly better matchup. Heat in 7.
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