Thursday, May 19, 2011

Offense anyone?

The Heat leveled the series last night at 1-1, stealing away the home court advantage that the Bulls had worked all season to secure. Many people overreacted to the Bulls Game 1 victory, and I expect others will overreact to this game. Again, some bullet point thoughts:
  • Lost in the celebration of the Bulls Game 1 victory was the fact that Derrick Rose had only one shot at the rim. He and his teammates hit a high percentage of jumpers in that game, but the percentage was far superior to their regular season numbers and was unlikely to continue. In Game 2, Rose again struggled to get to the hole, and as expected the Bulls jump shooting came back to the norm.
  • The Bulls are a ragtag bunch on offense. Derrick Rose is a scoring point with a so-so shooting percentage who is still improving his ability to distribute. The team's ball movement is nowhere close to that of, say, the Mavericks. They rely on Rose getting into the lane and/or their big men crashing the glass, leading to put backs and open three pointers. In an effort to combat their offensive stagnation, the Bulls put Kyle Korver into the game late in the 4th, but he didn't get good looks. Also, his being in the game (a) forced Derrick Rose to cover Dwayne Wade and (b) allowed the Heat to continually pull Korver into playing pick-and-roll defense.
  • Joel Anthony's defense rebounding percentage this year: 12.4%. Udonis Haslem's defensive rebounding percentage in his last full season: 24.8% (and it was 25% this year before he was injured). Moreover, while Joel Anthony is unable to make the Bulls pay for leaving him open, Haslem's basketball IQ, jump shot, and cuts to the basket mean that he can't be ignored. Anthony's fourth foul mid-way through the third quarter was a blessing in disguise.
  • Erik Spoelstra is right to not play Dampier or Big Z in this series. Much of the Heat's defense against the Bulls is predicated on having their big man strongly hedge--and perhaps even double--when involved in a Rose pick-and-roll. Rose's inability to get into the paint has been a function more of the Heat's help defense than of his primary defender bottling him up. The two lumbering giants currently siding courtside in suits would be unable to play this role, and would have to succumb to either fouling or allowing Rose to get to the corner and blow by them.
  • The Heat had a few moments throughout the game where their offense was clicking. On each occasion, they were getting away from isos and instead quickly swinging the ball to the other side of the floor, resulting in open looks and cuts to the basket. However, once the fourth quarter arrived, they again reverted to giving the ball to LeBron or Wade, dribbling until about 10 seconds were left on the shot clock, and then forcing the issue. LeBron did made a few big shots, but still, it's not like the Heat were an offensive juggernaut in the quarter. They need to focus on staying with ball and player movement, as any Thibodeau-led defense is always going to crash the strong side.
  • People have been throwing around the fact that the Heat outrebounded the Bulls last night without providing proper context. Yes, the Heat got 45 rebounds to the Bulls 41, but the Bulls still had 17 offensive rebounds to the Heat's 10. What accounts for the disparity? Anytime one team shoots 34% from the field and the other 47%, the better shooting team should always win the rebounding battle as they'll have many more chances at defensive rebounds. The Heat didn't completely "correct" their difficulty in stopping the Bulls from getting to the offensive glass, and it's something they'll likely continue to struggle with going forward (though, as mentioned above, giving Haslem more of Anthony's minutes will help).

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